TAILGATE WATCHDOG
Just in time for the start of NFL Training Camps, the Fantasy Tailgate Watchdog is back!
We are thankful to have one of the most in-depth fantasy fantasy football writers offering up his insight and advice for the preseason. Joining us this month to go "7 on 7" with questions surrounding the fantasy football and NFL world, please welcome Greg Bebezas of www.thefantasyfootballtimes.com.
DAN: Greg--give us some history of TheFantasyFootballTimes.com. How did it all get started? What is your background with fantasy sports?
GREG: I got involved in Fantasy Football for the first time back in 1992. I had read about it in a magazine and immediately thought it would be something worth trying out. So with the help of my brother, we formed our first league and got hooked. I still get a kick out of the early days before the internet hit. We used to post the standings on our front door so everyone else in the league could drive by to see them. I used to get 10 minute rambling messages left on my answering machine from people setting their lineups and add/dropping players. It was completely different than how Fantasy Football is run today. It’s really unbelievable how far it has come.
Then in 2003, I when it was obvious that the Fantasy Sports Industry was growing and here to stay, I founded The Fantasy Football Times.com. The reason I took a shot at it was because I didn’t feel anyone else was covering Fantasy Football online the way it should be. I actually went through an entrepreneurial training program that helped me get it off the ground. And within three years, we’ve been named a finalist for Best Fantasy Football Draft Kit by the Fantasy Sports Trade Association (FSTA), and everything associated with the company continues to grow rapidly. We went from a scouting dept. of four people to now having over a dozen people involved in the operations.
DAN: How do you size up potential sleepers? Who are your top 5 biggest sleepers for 2006?
GREG: I determine sleepers based on average draft position (ADP). I find this to be the most accurate and insightful way at finding players that can be taken later in drafts. I usually establish rounds that I think players should be taken in and then compare that with what’s actually happening out there through mock drafts and leagues.
There are so many different places to find sleepers these days that analyzing ADP is essential at finding players that are undervalued and true sleepers. Below are some players at each position that are offering good values in drafts right now:
QB – Aaron Brooks (OAK)
RB – r-DeAngelo Williams (CAR)
WR – Roddy White (ATL)
TE – Ben Watson (NE)
PK – Olindo Mare (MIA)
D/ST - Arizona
DAN: Who is your 2006 NFL/ Fantasy Comeback Player of 2006 and why?
GREG: Considering the severity of Daunte Culpepper’s injury, if he comes back in time to start the season and posts top 10 numbers for Fantasy, he’ll be the frontrunner for Comeback Player of the Year.
DAN: Give us your early take on the Deuce McAllister / Reggie Bush situation. Where do these star running back get drafted?
GREG: This has been the most asked question I’ve heard all offseason, and everything regarding this RBBC is dependant on McAllister’s recovery from his knee injury. If Deuce is back at or near full capacity, he’s going to take substantial production away from Bush, especially in the TD department.
While I do think Bush is a phenomenal talent, it’s going to be tough for him to be a consistent #2 RB. Any RB in a RBBC is usually much more suited as a flex play than a straight #2 RB for that matter. The Saints offensive line is also in transition and lost the best center in the league in free agency (LeCharles Bentley). They’re also in a very tough division. Owners also have to know how their scoring system works, because Bush has significant more value in PPR leagues (points per reception).
As it stands, Bush is going in the 3rd round of drafts, which suggests that Owners are taking him as their #2 RB. Meanwhile, McAllister is going two rounds later in the 5th. There’s still a lot to be determined before the season hits, but ultimately I think Owners are going to find themselves in better shape if they’re using these RBs as #3s. Of course, all bets are off if McAllister isn’t 100% going into the season.
DAN: Which players are overrated in 2006 and why?
GREG: Donovan McNabb has always been overvalued in Fantasy drafts, and this year is no different. His big season in 2004 was the exception, not the norm. He doesn’t have a #1 WR, and you could even argue that he doesn’t even have a legit #2 WR.
His ADP is in the 5-6th round as the 5th QB off the board. That’s way too high in my opinion. I just don’t see him being able to throw much more than 20 TDs. Owners should expect to see him produce numbers similar to his 2000-3 seasons before Owens arrived when he had no #1 WR and averaged 3025 yards and 20 TDs per season, which does not make him a top 5 QB.
Another player that I think is grossly overrated right now is Ron Dayne. He has not come close to putting up numbers that justify his 6-7th round ADP. We all know that Denver’s system produces great RB numbers, but I’ll put my money on Tatum Bell over Dayne any day of the week.
DAN: Do you see any of these injury-ridden players (Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon and Fred Taylor) having a big year or are they done?
GREG: Ironically, Taylor has been the most maligned and injury-prone out of the three, but heading into this season he’s in position to produce the best numbers.
The Jets aren’t hiding the fact that they plan to drastically reduce Martin’s workload this season, and Dillon is going to have a tough time keeping rookie Laurence Maroney off the field. I don’t think Dillon is done though. I just think that he’s going to find himself in a RBBC.
On the other hand, Taylor is finally over the knee injury that limited him in 2005. And with the loss of Jimmy Smith, there are a lot of questions surrounding the Jags passing game. So the offense is really going to be leaning on Taylor this season, which gives him the most potential at having a big season.
DAN: Who are your top 5 fantasy friendly systems (offensive)?
GREG: In no particular order I would say: Indianapolis, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Seattle, and I’ll throw in Dallas with the addition of Terrell Owens.
Even though the Colts lost Edgerrin James, any offense with Peyton Manning calling the shots has to be held in the highest regard. The Bengals really took it to another level offensively last year under Carson Palmer, and if he’s on schedule to start the season as they say he is, they’re going to give Fantasy Owners a lot of production again.
The Rams have been a top Fantasy offense for years and Steven Jackson is going to allow them to stay at the top. The Seahawks West Coast offense is perfect for their skilled-position players and their offensive line really gives them an edge in the running game that few teams have.
On the other hand, the Cowboys offensive line could prevent them from putting up elite Fantasy production, but the players are there for them to move the ball effectively and attack defenses in many different ways.
DAN: Give us your Super Bowl prediction and winner.
GREG: There was an active free agent period and a deep NFL draft this past offseason, which allowed a few teams that were already contenders to improve. So look for many of last year’s playoff teams to be in the hunt again.
In the AFC, if you look at New England’s schedule, they’re going to be a 12-win team again, which should be good enough for a bye and a ticket back to the big game. I really liked what they did in the draft by giving Tom Brady some very talented young players in RB-Maroney and WR-Chad Jackson. And on top of that, their offensive line is back healthy after losing their two best linemen in 2005. Their defense will always be good under Bill Belichick and they have arguably the best defensive line in football.
In the NFC, I’ll go out on a limb and pick Atlanta. A lot of people forget that they were in the NFC Championship game two seasons ago, and the additions to their defense (DE-John Abraham, SS-Lawyer Milloy, rookie CB-Jimmy Williams) since last season are not only to help them on that side of the ball, it’s going to make things easier for their offense and Mike Vick. But in the end, it still won’t be enough to knock off the AFC Champion.
DAN: THANK SO MUCH for your time. Where can our Fantasy Tailgate visitors see more of your fantasy football insight?
GREG: I’d like to welcome all Fantasy Tailgate users to come check out our brand new website for 2006: CLICK HERE and visit The Fantasy Football Times.
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Dan LaBert Interviews Greg Bebezas
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